Thursday, 9 March 2017

Elections with Chinese Characteristics

It is expected Carrie Lam will win the election, but by how many votes?
Beijing seems to be fretting over the "election" of the next chief executive of Hong Kong, because it is worried that its preferred candidate Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor may not have an outright win.

According to an anonymous source who is a local member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference who has met with senior leaders in Beijing, said they are concerned that their lobbying for Lam may have a negative impact on her.

John Tsang is giving Lam a run for her money, and Beijing too
Last week Lam also voiced concern for Beijing outright lobbying for her, saying she would discreetly tell them not to do it, knowing it could affect her votes as well as the public's perception of her.

The anonymous source said Lam may have trouble governing effectively because her rival John Tsang Chun-wah has greater popularity with the public than her. "But they [Beijing] said they have no choice under current circumstances", the source said.

These revelations behind the scenes show how desperate Beijing is to orchestrate the election, but yet Tsang seems to be throwing a spanner in the works which is interesting.

But why is Beijing so worried?

Its preferred candidate will win -- she already garnered 579 nominations, way more than both Tsang (159) and Woo Kwok-hing (180).

Woo Kwok-hing is popular with locals as well as Tsang
How about worrying about how she is going to persuade the public in televised debates how she is going to represent the average person, and stand up for Hong Kong's interests? That's what people care about, and Woo and Tsang already focused on getting the popular vote as a vital part of their strategy. They didn't have the guanxi, but they have local appeal. Lam has the opposite.

Lam may not win on the first ballot, but she will definitely on the second.

For Beijing to worry so much about this reveals how it cannot even deal with democracy at all. No wonder they keep delaying it!


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