Friday, 14 September 2018

China's Lending Spree Continues

Finance Minister Simon Zerpa (second to left) in Beijing to secure US$5B
China is the big benefactor these days.

Earlier this month it gave US$60 billion to African countries during the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in Beijing. Previous debts were forgiven, making the total investment in Africa to from 2000 to 2017 to US$136 billion.

Zerpa says the loan will be paid back in oil
Of course China gets something for pumping billions into the African continent, though it denies it is neo-colonialism or chequebook diplomacy. African leaders claim the mostly infrastructure projects have helped stimulate social and economic development, and that other countries (like the United States) should do more to help.

However, according to China Africa Research Initiative at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, the African continent's biggest donor is in fact the US.

This week China is back at it again, this time the recipient is Venezuela which continues to descend into chaos with people desperate for basic needs that are not available and neither is the cash.

China has stepped in to give the Latin American country US$5 billion. Venezuela's finance minister Simon Zerpa is already in Beijing to hammer out the details with Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan, while President Nicholas Maduro is heading to the Chinese capital.

Cash-strapped Venezuela dealing with anger in the streets
Zerpa has told media he Venezuela would pay back the loan, partly in cash or oil, and that the country would sign a "strategic alliance on gold mining" with China. Hmmm sounds like another way to repay the debt.

But perhaps even more interesting or shocking is that China has been a key money lender to Venezuela since 2008 with an estimated US$70 billion over the years.

Wonder who China will dole out cash and credit to next week...

Thursday, 13 September 2018

Can Bridge Take On Super Typhoon?

Super Typhoon Mangkhut is over Luzon now, on the way to Hong Kong
The Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge is almost done -- but before it opens the mega infrastructure project will face its first severe test -- Super Typhoon Mangkhut on Sunday.

It's expected to pack up winds of up to 205km/h and be within 100km of Hong Kong -- but can the 55km bridge handle it?

Structural and geotechnical engineer Ngai Hok-yan has his doubts. He says the artificial islands in mainland waters and on the Macau side would face a greater risk from Mangkhut than the one at Hong Kong's Chek Lap Kok, which is partly protected by Lantau Island.

Can the bridge sustain winds of over 200km/h?
"Whether the bridge can withstand the destructive force of Super Typhoon Mangkhut depends on the height of the waves at the artificial island," he said.

Currently the dolosse or protective blocks there can withstand waves as high as four metres, but beyond that there is a chance the protective blocks could wash away very quickly, Ngai said, adding American forecasts have predicted waves could be as high as six metres.

"Without the protection of the dolosse, the worst case scenario would see the undersea tunnel detach from the artificial island and float above the sea, and also the collapse of the island."

He also said the Macau artificial island was exposed to more risk because it faced the sea.

Hmmm! Seems like none of the higher-ups in Hong Kong, Beijing or Macau considered the possibility of natural disasters when they were thinking about building this bridge that connects Macau and Hong Kong with the mainland.

Can the dolosse sustain waves over four metres high?
Aside from adverse weather conditions, one friend said she refused to go on the bridge once it was completed because what if someone's car broke down? Would there be a massive traffic jam? Who would help tow the car away? Or what if there was an accident? And the chances of that happening are very high, considering drivers in Hong Kong and Macau have the steering wheel on the right side of the car, China on the left.

And now this ominous warning from an engineer saying the bridge may not withstand a super typhoon...

All we can do now is wait and see what happens.

Wednesday, 12 September 2018

Picture of the Day: Super Typhoon Mangkhut

That white blob in the centre is Super Typhoon Mangkhut going northwest
The big story today is not one but two typhoons coming our way.

One, called Typhoon Barijat, is passing south of us now, but the big concern is Super Typhoon Mangkhut that is on its way to the Philippines and projected to come within 100km of Hong Kong on Sunday.

It's current path will skirt Hong Kong to the south, but in the next few days that path could change.

Already people are very worried. After work my colleague went to the supermarket to find all the fresh vegetables were sold out and so she resorted to buying frozen peas instead.

It's hard to say what's going to happen until the typhoon does arrive, so there's not much point in freaking out about it now.

One thing for sure is that it will be very windy when Mangkhut comes, with winds expected to be the strongest since records began in 1946, and stronger than any of the past 15 severe or super typhoons that were T10.

Super typhoons can have wind speeds of up to 185km/h near its centre. 

Last year Super Typhoon Hato reached 185km/h at its highest intensity and was 60km from the Hong Kong Observatory's headquarters.

I am relatively stocked with food in the freezer, and have plenty of projects to do if I'm stuck at home on the weekend (ie cleaning out the flat, catching up on sleep).




Tuesday, 11 September 2018

Behave on the Train

The new West Kowloon train station opens later this month.. with glitches...
Although the new high-speed rail station opens on September 23, people have already bought or attempted to buy train tickets -- some with not much luck.

So far 3,266 tickets were sold on Tuesday, 1,654 online and 319 over the phone. This pales in comparison to 7,079 sold on Monday.

People with old home return permits cannot use ticket machines
It turns out the vending machines at the new West Kowloon terminus cannot read older home return permits, and so people had to line up at the counter to buy their tickets.

Others were concerned that perhaps the China Railway Corporation had blacklisted them.

The blacklist currently applies to mainland Chinese citizens, but will be extended to Hongkongers when the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link opens on September 23.

One Hong Kong lawmaker is calling for information on the blacklist be made public.

Good luck with that.

In May, China Railway Corporation issued a list of seven types of bad behaviour that would result in a ban from getting on the vast mainland high-speed network. The punishment? Not being able to buy a railway ticket for 180 days.

Many resorted to waiting in line to buy tickets from staff
The behaviours include: smoking on trains, faking documents for rail travel, speculative reselling of tickets, flouting rules at the terminus, and causing disruptions. There's also "other behaviours subject to administrative penalty according to relevant laws and regulations on the mainland". But the rail operator hasn't clarified what exactly "other behaviours" means.

This is part of China's data-driven social credit system that assesses the trustworthiness of each Chinese citizen, generating ratings for them. The ratings affect everything, from their access to services, such as taking trains and planes, to being approved for a loan.

Those with "bad credit" are put on various defaulters lists. Last month the mainland rail operator added 242 people to the list of defaulters.

Sounds murky, but it seems if Hongkongers will be included in this blacklist come September 23, isn't that yet another aspect of "one country, two systems" not applicable here?