Shocking Estimates of Wuhan Coronavirus

Gabriel Leung (left) says there could be as many as 44,000 cases in Wuhan

Today is the third year of Lunar New Year, and in Chinese superstition, you're not supposed to go outside for fear of starting up arguments that could result in bad luck and ruin the rest of the year.

And it would be pretty justified to stay in considering the mounting fears of the Wuhan coronavirus spreading faster and further than currently reported.

This afternoon infectious disease experts from the University of Hong Kong estimate that the number of patients in Wuhan had reached 43,590 by Saturday, including those in the incubation stage of the virus, which causes pneumonia.

The Wuhan market that maybe ground zero for the coronavirus

So far the number of reported cases in the country is 2,880 as of Monday, and 81 dead. That's a huge discrepancy, but lead researcher and dean of HKU's faculty of medicine Gabriel Leung said his team estimated there were 25,630 patients showing symptoms in Wuhan, and that the number would double in 6.2 days. This is according to mathematical modelling based on infection figures worldwide as of Saturday.

The big issue is that unlike SARS, the Wuhan coronavirus is difficult to detect because it is infectious during the incubation period, and that those who are infected may not show any symptoms like elevated temperatures.

If there are 44,000 cases in Wuhan alone, how many could there be nationwide and worldwide? 

Leung and his team's research showed self-sustaining human-to-human transmission was already happening in all major mainland cities and warned a pandemic might be close. 

The Forbidden City in Beijing is closed indefinitely

"We have to be prepared, that this particular epidemic may be about to become a global epidemic," he said.

The team's model predicted the number of infections in five mainland megacities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Chongqing, would peak between late April and early May. At that time, as many as 150,000 new cases could be confirmed everyday in Chongqing because of its large population and the intense travel volume with Wuhan.

Leung said the estimates could be too pessimistic,  as it only took into account the lockdown in Wuhan and not travel and health advisories in other cities and provinces, but in the meantime he is advising the Hong Kong government to take more severe measures to stop the virus from coming into the city and spreading.

"So, the question is not whether or not to do more... Yes, we must do more. The question really is, how can we make sure that is feasible, implementable and enforceable," he said, adding the government's task now was to study practical plans, like the logistics of importing food and supplies.

Premier Li Keqiang visited medical staff, patients in Wuhan

Meanwhile I am hearing from relatives and friends who are currently vacationing abroad that they cannot find masks in pharmacies -- they are sold out in places like London and Taipei. While the Hong Kong government claims it has enough masks, locals have trouble finding them, or are in shock as the inflated prices.

Maybe shops will have supplies by Wednesday when business is supposedly back to normal after Chinese New Year?

The Cultural Revolution: 50 Years of Pain Continues

"Chairman Mao is with us forever" reads the propaganda poster

Today marks the 50th anniversary of the Cultural Revolution. And as expected China refuses to acknowledge it.

I remember my mom telling me about the Cultural Revolution when I was a child and I didn't understand what she meant by it. I just remember her just saying how terrible it was, and how people were ruined by it.

Many academics, artists were denounced

It wasn't until many years later that I started doing my own research on it, reading articles and books about it (Red China Blues, Life and Death in Shanghai), that I began to realize the depth of the catastrophe -- a man made political disaster that ruined China for at least 10 years.

To survive, people did the most horrific things to each other -- to what end? Many committed suicide, unable to deal with the upheaval, others were left for dead.

And what came of it? Those who were the youth during that time are now in power. It's so strange how things turn out.

Several years ago when then Chongqing party chief Bo Xilai started reviving revolutionary red songs, it was a frightening prospect that someone who was previously thought as liberal was actually very "red", or was it a ploy to try to get a wider base of support from party elders?

In any event, his corruption scandal brought him and his family down, but that may have inspired the current leader Xi Jinping to get people onto the revolutionary bandwagon by encouraging them to be more nationalistic, meanwhile tightening the internet to make it harder for them to access information abroad.

A recent show in Beijing seemed to glorify Mao 50 years ago

A few weeks ago there was a performance in the Great Hall of the People that was very revolutionary in nature, that seemed to hark back to the Cultural Revolution with young girls singing Maoist songs as well as projecting images of Mao that were reminiscent of propaganda posters.

Afterwards when people began criticizing the show that anyone involved in it denied being the instigator and claimed the group that put on the show was fake. It was too close to the 50th anniversary and reminded people of that time.

It is sad to know that only once a year the graveyard in Chongqing for those who died during the Cultural Revolution is open to the public; otherwise it is locked.

This inability to confront what happened 50 years ago and its lingering effects has paralyzed China from moving forward, righting wrongs and making sure something like this does not happen again.

Mao's lingering effects continue to impact people's lives

In some ways their going through the Cultural Revolution explains why mainlanders act the way they do -- aggressive in buying goods, having very little empathy for others, thinking of ways to cheat others without any sense of morality.

And like the Tiananmen Square massacre, many young people have no idea what the Cultural Revolution is and how it affected their families. It's a deep dark secret that many either choose to be ignorant of, or their parents refuse to tell them.

The pain is still there.

Until the Communist Party decides to make peace with the past, history will not be resolved properly. This event that stretched over 10 years will continue to dog the party, much like June 4, 1989, an itch that refuses to go away.

Taxpayer Dollars go up in Flames -- Literally

A prototype electric bus that had a short circuit and burst into flames yesterday

Hong Kong is finally getting on the electric bus bandwagon, but it had a slight setback when a prototype that was designed in the city but built across the border burst into flames yesterday.

The fire department believes it had a short circuit which overheated the battery.

The Hong Kong Productivity Council designed the bus and reported it had passed several tests on the mainland before it was delivered to Hong Kong.

Are we sure the bus was properly tested in China? One wonders what kind of "vigorous testing" it went through...

The HK$40 million project began in August 2013, funded by the government's Innovation and Technology Fund. The electric bus was built at HK$3.8 million -- twice the price of a diesel bus.

While it was designed in Hong Kong, the electric bus was manufactured in China because of the lack of manpower and space to build one in the city.

Ironically the council's chairman, Stanley Lau Chin-ho, vouched for the bus's safety back in October for a promotional event.

"Although the coach was assembled on the mainland, it underwent nine months of tests in Chongqing and Dongguan to ensure its safety. I am sure there would not be any problems," he said.

Uh huh.

The single-decker bus was supposed to be able to cover 380km on a four-hour charge and travel up to 70km/h with 75 passengers.

Did Hong Kong really have to design its own bus? Could it not have bought one from other companies who already have the expertise in doing this? Why try to reinvent the wheel?

And another thing: last year Hong Kong Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying said in his policy address that the government would promote the use of electric vehicles and would fund the purchase of 36 single-deck electric buses by franchised bus companies.

Wait -- why would the government pay for 36 electric buses to be on the road? Why not mandate them to have X number of electric buses by a certain year, and Y number in subsequent years?

Why do taxpayers have to shell out for bus companies where we pay bus fare already?

It's completely illogical.

And now a prototype has burst into flames and is now a charred skeleton.

Oops there goes HK$3.8 million...

Home At Last

Zheng Fayan (right) reunited with her mother after 18 years

I just read a tragic story from Chongqing.

A woman has been reunited with her family 18 years after she was abducted.

Zheng Fayan was welcomed back to her village in Chongqing last Monday. The last time she saw her family was when she was 16.

However, she was unable to see her father -- he passed away in 2009.

Like many other rural residents in the 1990s, Zheng went to Guangdong province to get a factory job. There she met a woman who took her to a remote village in Chaozhou the following year.

There the woman sold her to a man surnamed Chen, who was about 40 at the time. "I the first few months, I was chained to the door," Zheng said, adding Chen feared she would flee.

In 1998 she gave birth to her first child with Chen and went on to have four more.

Zheng said she tried to send letters to her family back home, but they were all returned.

Finally a chance to escape came when Chen, who was too old to work, sent her to a factory in Dongguan, in Guangdong.

There she met Zhang Dajun, also from Chongqing who helped her get back to her home in Wuxi county.

"In these 18 years, I imagined countless times meeting my family. Today I can finally see my mother and brother," Zheng said after arriving home.

County police have launched an investigation into her abduction, but the chances of finding that woman again are few and far between. They will probably find Chen with the children, and then what? Charge him with abduction and violating the one-child policy?

And how does she feel about leaving behind her five children? Does she have any affection for them despite having them with a man she did not love?

The fact that abductions like this still happens in China shows how people in the cities continue to take advantage of those from the countryside, exploiting them for their own gain.

The government has to stop these abductions and severely punish those who enable this heinous crime.

Zheng is not alone. There are thousands, probably tens of thousands of cases like hers. Even more heartbreaking are babies and children who are abducted and have no idea what their names are, let alone their parents' identities, and where they are from. Finding these children are near impossible.

Hopefully Zheng will make up for lost time with her family and try to piece her life back together again. What happened to her will be a lesson to others in the perils of being too trusting...

10 Chinese Cities to Watch

Of all the Chinese cities, Chengdu is considered to have a booming economy

It's interesting to discover Chengdu is considered to have the most successful economy in China, according to a US-based think tank, considering such factors as job growth, foreign investment and high value-added industries.

Shanghai and Tianjin were second and third respectively, while the Chinese capital was 13th in the Milken Institute study.

Shanghai is in second place in the Milken Institute study

Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan province was praised for its "human capital, central government support, established industries in high-end aerospace and aircraft design, and a more recently developed electronics manufacturing sector".

The study said mainland cities were developing in two ways: For Shanghai and Tianjin it is about urbanization, industrial clustering and infrastructure investment bolstering larger regional economies.

The other way, due to the slowdown in economic growth, was the focus on technology, private investment and consumption.

This is the first time the institute has ranked mainland cities, assessing 266 at the prefecture level and above, and divided them into two categories -- 34 first and second-tier cities, and the rest as third-tier cities.

Tianjin comes in third with lots of potential for growth

The study didn't just look at economic growth, but also job and wage growth, gross regional production, foreign direct investment and the strength of high value-added industries.

Chengdu may have done well in the study due to having several respected universities and has lower labour costs.

Interestingly Shenzhen just made number 10 on the list, and seven of the top 10 third-tier cities were in Jiangsu province, which has a strong transportation network of airports, highways and high-speed rail links.

The top 10 cities are:

1. Chengdu

2. Shanghai

3. Tianjin

4. Dalian

5. Nanjing

6. Hefei

7. Xiamen

8. Changchun

9. Chongqing

10. Shenzhen

There should be lots of information to be gleaned from this study and potential investors and entrepreneurs should take note.

China has World's Worst Delays

Shanghai's Pudong Airport one of the world's worst in terms of delays

After my trip to Xiamen that resulted in delays going there and back, I'm not surprised to find China's airports and airlines were the worst in the world for being on time last year, according to FlightStats.

The US-based data provider on air travel found of the world's 61 largest airports, the seven worst performers for on-time departures were all mainland airports, with Hangzhou's Xiaoshan, Shanghai's Hongqiao and Pudong facilities taking the bottom three spots. Only 37.74 percent of flights left on time from Xiaoshan, 37.17 percent from Hongqiao, and 37.26 percent from Pudong.

These three airports were followed by Shenzhen Baoan, Guangzhou Baiyun, Chongqing Airport and Beijing Capital International Airport.

Japan's Haneda Airport had the best on-time rate of 89.76 percent of the largest airports in the world, while Itami airport was the best performing of 374 world airports of all sizes with an on-time percentage of 94.56.

Zou Jianjun of the Civil Aviation Management Institute of China said management of China's facilities had not kept up with demand and the network was concentrated in a few areas.

"Flight lines are too centralized in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, and it's a big challenge for their managers," he said. "Even if a small mistake happens at any of these major airports, it's quite possible that flights in other cities will be affected."

How about the fact that China's military controls the country's air space and only allows a fraction of it for commercial air travel? And with the boom in air travel, there are bound to be frictions between commercial and military interests, and the government has not resolved the situation.

This has resulted in not air rage, but ground rage, where passengers vent their frustration of delays on ground crew staff, and in a few instances things have gotten violent. Last February, a near riot broke out after more than 2,000 passengers were left stranded at Xinzheng International Airport at Zhengzhou, Henan province.

Is this how the Central government would like to see the commercial aviation industry develop? Some 390 million people traveled by airplanes last year, which is double the 2009 figure. Something's gotta give.

Nevertheless, Hong Kong International Airport dropped in the rankings too, down from 22nd spot to 80th last year.

No mainland or Hong Kong airlines made the top 10 list of having on-time arrivals last year. KLM took top spot at 88.66 percent.

Another crazy statistic from FlightStats is that if all the extra time passengers and crew spent waiting on the tarmac for flights to take off in the mainland in 2014 were added together, the total would amount to about 232 years. Even notified flight delays would add up to about 183 years.

That's a lot of wasted time! Imagine that lost productivity could have boosted China's GDP even more...

The Truth About Air Pollution in China

Air pollution in Beijing is apparently not as bad as some other cities in China

A new study by Greenpeace and Peking University shows that air pollution kills more people than smoking in many cities in China.

The smog-inducing pollutants known as PM2.5 caused 257,000 premature deaths across the mainland's 31 cities and provincial capitals in 2013 according to the study, an average of about 90 in every 100,000 deaths.

But the averages were higher in 12 of the 31 cities, including Shijiazhuang, Nanjing, Tianjin and Chongqing, where at least 100 out of every 100,000 deaths were caused by PM2.5.

These two averages were higher than the official mortality rate for smoking, which was about 70 per 100,000 deaths in 2012, according to Greenpeace.

This is only the tip of the iceberg, as there are some cities, like those in Hebei province that are even more polluted, but were not included in the survey.

Although many complain about Beijing's smog, the Chinese capital actually measured 79 of every 100,000 premature deaths due to air pollution, lower than 21 other cities featured.

Peking University professor Pan Xiaochuan said the survey team tried to collect data from more than 100 cities, but many had data that was either incomplete or inconsistent.

This says a lot about not only collecting data properly, but also the individual municipalities' and provinces' concerns about public healthcare issues. PM 2.5 are tiny particulate matter smaller than 2.5 microns that can stay lodged in a person's lungs.

While 21 cities have introduced plans to tackle air pollution, setting themselves reduction targets to be met by 2017, Greenpeace says even if such goals were met, only 26,000 deaths could be avoided annually.

The environmental activist group says the entire country needs to make a concerted comprehensive and collected effort to reduce pollution.

There are no official statistics on premature deaths caused by air pollution. In 2013, the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention launched a study on the impact of smog on public health, but the results won't be ready until later this year.

Interestingly last year former health minister Chen Zhu and three other authors estimated in The Lancet medical journal that air pollution caused 350,000 to 500,000 premature deaths per year.

But an earlier study in the same journal said air pollution accounted for 1.2 million premature deaths in 2010 alone.

So what are the real numbers? Perhaps China is too scared to find out... or more importantly be blamed for these deaths...

Passengers Behaving Badly -- Again

The emergency door exits were yanked open for some fresh air...

More and more Chinese mainlanders are traveling and it's a booming industry in the country even though there aren't enough pilots to fly them.

However these passengers are quickly gaining a bad rep for their manners on airplanes.

The latest?

Opening up the emergency door exits because the flight was delayed due to snow.

First there was a three-hour delay due to rain from Dhaka, Bangladesh to Kunming. Then passengers got angry when the ongoing flight to Beijing was delayed more than two hours, from 8.45pm to 11pm.

A previous incident where another person opened the door

Some passengers initially refused to re-board the plane, demanding compensation, but finally they were coxed onto the plane by 1.40am. However it took more than an hour to clear snow from the plane, so when the aircraft finally began taxing at 3.17am -- more than seven hours behind schedule, some passengers pulled open three emergency door exits, forcing the pilots to stop the plane and return to the gate.

A person on Weibo reported -- and then the post was later deleted -- that the pilot exchanged angry words with the passengers. The post said the air conditioning was turned off at 3am and some passengers complained it was hard to breathe, and asked to get off the plane for fresh air, but the air crew refused.

The Weibo post then reported that the pilot shouted: "Are you going to die soon? If not, just wait."

Then the plane began moving, catching some passengers off guard, causing them to fall over.

The incident has sparked debate in China, with some blaming the pilot for not handling the situation well, while others believe passengers should not be pulling open emergency doors.

There's another incident of an apparently illiterate farmer who was caught smoking in the washroom of the plane and was fined HK$2,000 and had to give up his travel documents.

How about some kind of explanation of why it's crucial to clear snow off a plane before it takes off?

Some women were caught in a brawl over a crying baby

Another well-known incident from last month was when four passengers made a scene, scalding the flight attendant with hot water from instant noodles and threatening to bomb the plane due to a row over seating arrangements.

Then there was the passenger flying from Hangzhou to Chengdu who yanked open the emergency door just before take off to "get some fresh air".

Oh and don't forget about a cat fight on a flight from Chongqing to Hong Kong about a bawling baby...

How is China going to teach its 1.3 billion people about airline etiquette and safety? It seems like the motherland assumes its children know how to behave on planes without even giving them instructions...

Or perhaps it's because the Chinese are tired of being treated badly by their superiors that now as passengers, they feel entitled to their idea of just treatment?

China, you've got a long way to go, baby

Zaijian, Mr Locke

Gary Locke with his family when they first arrived in Beijing

US Ambassador to China Gary Locke has tendered his resignation and will leave the post in January to join his family in Seattle.

He was in the job for two years and it must have been interesting for the third-generation Chinese-American to see his grandparents' homeland.

Locke quickly endeared himself to the ordinary Chinese when he was spotted flying economy class, carrying his own luggage and trying to pay his Starbucks coffee with coupons.

But his tenure quickly escalated into international news -- twice.

He endeared himself to the Chinese for being humble

The first was in November 2011 Locke visited Chongqing where he met the then party chief Bo Xilai. Three months later Bo's right hand man Wang Lijun fled to the US consulate in Chengdu and told of the story of a murder that implicated Bo and evidence of corruption in the hopes of receiving asylum in return.

In the end there wasn't enough justification for the US to take him in and this led to Bo's downfall which we saw a few months ago.

Then last May blind activist Chen Guangcheng managed to escape illegal house arrest in Shandong and fled to Beijing and sought refuge in the US Embassy.

This created a huge diplomatic crisis for the US, as then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was about to arrive for scheduled talks and didn't want this incident to anger the Chinese.

At first the embassy didn't want to confirm Chen was there, but in the end said it accepted him on humanitarian grounds and medical assistance.

He will be forever remembered in helping Chen Guangcheng

Perhaps Locke's misstep was leaving Chen alone in a Beijing hospital to get his foot looked at because he broke it while escaping; as a result Chinese security stepped in, and Chen was unable to contact the embassy, nor were US diplomats able to see him. This made Chen anxious and felt abandoned, even betrayed.

In the end negotiations were made for Chen and his family to go to New York.

Some speculated that Locke is leaving because of the increasingly bad air quality in Beijing, but the consulate denies this. Nevertheless his family has already moved back to Seattle and so it would only be a matter of time before he rejoined them.

So what's next for Locke? Surely he won't be out of the headlines for long.