Chinese Expert says Covid Already Adapted to Humans

Guan Yi warned Covid-19 would be 10 times worse than Sars

China has one voice of reason in the Covid-19 pandemic -- but his expert opinion goes against President Xi Jinping's zero tolerance goal.

That's because scientist Guan Yi, whose work helped averted a second Sars outbreak in 2004, says zero-Covid will not succeed because the virus has already adapted to humans and cannot be fully eliminated.

He said during an interview with Phoenix TV that China should instead focus on vaccines and test the population's immunity level after vaccination to determine which jabs to administer. Guan is the director of the State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases at Shantou University in southern China, which runs a lab in partnership with the University of Hong Kong.

He says the virus has already adapted to humans

Almost 80 percent of China's population has been vaccinated and they have already begun administering booster shots and inoculating children.

However, there have been sporadic outbreaks that have spread to at least 20 provinces and regions. On Monday there were 43 reported new local symptomatic cases as well as 19 imported and 74 asymptomatic infections after days of mass testing and quarantine in multiple areas.

"Local governments are adopting zero tolerance to these scattered cases," Guan said. "But if that remains the case, I think our economy will collapse... I think there is no chance if we set a goal to eliminate all cases.

"Just like influenza, this virus already has a foothold in mankind and it will stay with us for the long term -- it is in fact, whether we like it or not. This virus has already fully adapted itself in humans.

"We should not declare victory over this virus too early, or we would be underestimating its impact on mankind."

Vaccines should be tested for antibodies

Guan explained the Sars outbreak was stopped in 2003 because it had not yet fully adapted to humans. He played a key role in identifying civet cats as they intermediate host of Sars. In January 2020 he told news website Caixin the then newly emergent coronavirus would be 10 times worse than Sars.

China should have the courage to find out its population's antibody level after vaccination, instead of devoting so much of its resources to testing to identify positive cases, he said.

"What is the level of [neutralising] antibodies induced by vaccines and how long can it last?" Guan said. "Only by [establishing that] can you determine the effectiveness of a vaccine. We also have to find out how long immunity can last after boosters, otherwise it could be possible that the antibodies wane before the winter finishes because the drop in antibodies may outpace the speed vaccines are distributed."

In Hong Kong it has been determined through antibody testing that people injected with Chinese-made Sinovac hardly have any or do not have any antibodies to fight Covid-19, let alone the variants. 

A few months ago Ip got Pfizer/BioNTech booster

Lawmaker Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee was one of those tested to have found to have no antibodies and immediately got a Pfizer/BioNTech booster.

Guan says vaccine makers have a responsibility to update the public about their vaccines' effectiveness against different variants. 

"If a vaccine is not effective, we should remove it [from the vaccine program]. If we don't have sufficient understanding... we don't have the [chance] to make improvements, especially when vested interests are involved," he said, in a veiled reference to pharmaceutical companies.

His reasoning is sound, and hints that China will have to live with Covid-19, but will Xi? Will the President take Guan's expert opinion into consideration, or force him to submit to his zero-Covid strategy?

We will be watching.