Chinese Expert says Covid Already Adapted to Humans

Guan Yi warned Covid-19 would be 10 times worse than Sars

China has one voice of reason in the Covid-19 pandemic -- but his expert opinion goes against President Xi Jinping's zero tolerance goal.

That's because scientist Guan Yi, whose work helped averted a second Sars outbreak in 2004, says zero-Covid will not succeed because the virus has already adapted to humans and cannot be fully eliminated.

He said during an interview with Phoenix TV that China should instead focus on vaccines and test the population's immunity level after vaccination to determine which jabs to administer. Guan is the director of the State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases at Shantou University in southern China, which runs a lab in partnership with the University of Hong Kong.

He says the virus has already adapted to humans

Almost 80 percent of China's population has been vaccinated and they have already begun administering booster shots and inoculating children.

However, there have been sporadic outbreaks that have spread to at least 20 provinces and regions. On Monday there were 43 reported new local symptomatic cases as well as 19 imported and 74 asymptomatic infections after days of mass testing and quarantine in multiple areas.

"Local governments are adopting zero tolerance to these scattered cases," Guan said. "But if that remains the case, I think our economy will collapse... I think there is no chance if we set a goal to eliminate all cases.

"Just like influenza, this virus already has a foothold in mankind and it will stay with us for the long term -- it is in fact, whether we like it or not. This virus has already fully adapted itself in humans.

"We should not declare victory over this virus too early, or we would be underestimating its impact on mankind."

Vaccines should be tested for antibodies

Guan explained the Sars outbreak was stopped in 2003 because it had not yet fully adapted to humans. He played a key role in identifying civet cats as they intermediate host of Sars. In January 2020 he told news website Caixin the then newly emergent coronavirus would be 10 times worse than Sars.

China should have the courage to find out its population's antibody level after vaccination, instead of devoting so much of its resources to testing to identify positive cases, he said.

"What is the level of [neutralising] antibodies induced by vaccines and how long can it last?" Guan said. "Only by [establishing that] can you determine the effectiveness of a vaccine. We also have to find out how long immunity can last after boosters, otherwise it could be possible that the antibodies wane before the winter finishes because the drop in antibodies may outpace the speed vaccines are distributed."

In Hong Kong it has been determined through antibody testing that people injected with Chinese-made Sinovac hardly have any or do not have any antibodies to fight Covid-19, let alone the variants. 

A few months ago Ip got Pfizer/BioNTech booster

Lawmaker Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee was one of those tested to have found to have no antibodies and immediately got a Pfizer/BioNTech booster.

Guan says vaccine makers have a responsibility to update the public about their vaccines' effectiveness against different variants. 

"If a vaccine is not effective, we should remove it [from the vaccine program]. If we don't have sufficient understanding... we don't have the [chance] to make improvements, especially when vested interests are involved," he said, in a veiled reference to pharmaceutical companies.

His reasoning is sound, and hints that China will have to live with Covid-19, but will Xi? Will the President take Guan's expert opinion into consideration, or force him to submit to his zero-Covid strategy?

We will be watching.

Lam's Excuse for Lack of Leadership

Carrie Lam gets to defend her leadership during a Phoenix TV interview

It is absolutely appalling that Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor claims she is an administrator, not a politician, and was caught unawares that her extradition bill would result on the months-long protests last year.

In an interview with pro-Beijing Phoenix TV, Lam said she could not have predicted the turmoil that erupted in weekly and sometimes daily skirmishes between the protesters and police.

"I really did not expect it, because I don't consider myself to be a person who understands politics very well, I am an administrator," she said, when asked if she ever expected Hong Kong politics to be so complex in her role as chief executive.

June 9, 2019 when 1 million people protested extradition bill

"But as of now, Hong Kong needs to have good governance, which is inseparable from politics," she told Sally Wu Xiaoli, anchor and deputy director at Phoenix Satellite Television.

Lam said that since the national security law was enacted on June 30, calm was restored.

"It brought back the Hong Kong we were once familiar with," she said.

Excuse me? Hong Kong has not been the same since last year, and the national security law has created another new normal for the city, one of fear and frustration. People are being arrested for actions that were retroactive, which goes against the promises before the new law was in effect.

Carrie Lam with Phoenix TV anchor Sally Wu Xiaoli

Perhaps she has forgotten that the coronavirus pandemic has also not made Hong Kong back to what it was before either.

And how could she not know that the extradition bill would lead to millions of people marching in the streets?

She either has terrible intelligence or is in denial. Besides, after 1 million people turn out to march peacefully, and you ignore them, so double the number of protesters come out the week after, and you ignore them as well, then that's your fault for completely misreading the situation.

Lam has no excuse because five years earlier she was the one who spoke on behalf of the government during the Umbrella Movement.

That 2014 debate between the students (left) and government

That now famous televised debate in October 2014 between the student leaders and the government led by Lam who was then Chief Secretary, revealed the latter didn't have much room for maneovuering, whereas the student leaders like Lester Shum, Nathan Law and Yvonne Leung stuck to their demands of universal suffrage and changes to the election law, such as abolishing the functional constituencies, much to the delight of viewers watching in the protest site.

In addition, how can she excuse her leadership performance by claiming she is more of an administrator than a politician? While she has spent 40 years of her life dedicated to the civil service, she saw how her predecessor, Leung Chun-ying politicized the position of chief executive and surely she should have known inheriting that job would require political deftness?

Weak excuses really.

Or did she do it for the money? She earned HK$5.21 million by the end of the first quarter this year, with a HK$120,000 increase.

Government Pats its own Back

Chief Secretary Carrie Lam to receive Hong Kong's highest honour

On the eve of the 19th anniversary of the handover of Hong Kong to China, the government unveiled its list of awards, lauding those who have made significant contributions to the city.

It was quite surprising to see the list stacked with government officials, led by Chief Secretary Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor being awarded the Grand Bauhinia Medal, the highest accolade possible.

Some of her colleagues receive the Gold Bauhinia Star, like Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for the Environment, and Paul Chan Mo-po, Secretary for Development.

What has Paul Chan done to merit a Gold Bauhinia Star?

One can see why Lam was given the award for her tireless efforts in trying to be the face of the Leung Chun-ying administration, particularly during the Occupy protests and last year when the government was pushing through electoral reform and failed. She had to put a brave face forward, which is professional of her, but at what cost morally?

What have Wong and Chan done lately that merit recognition for their work?

Pollution, waste and recycling issues have hardly been tackled, with the government timidly implementing waste disposal costs. Perhaps Wong will say these efforts need the cooperation of other departments, but his should be leading and pushing the cause with a goal of making Hong Kong a more efficient and cleaner city when it comes to dealing with waste and pollution.

Meanwhile Chan's record is hardly stellar, embroiled in several scandals mostly involving real estate. He and his wife were found to have property that had subdivided flats, and later it was reported his family had land in the New Territories where the government had planned to develop, thus possibly resulting in a windfall. He was accused of conflict of interest and did not fully disclose all his assets.

We vote for Chan Cheuk-ming to get formal recognition

What has he done to be awarded a Gold Bauhinia medal?

On the other hand, it goes without saying that the two firemen who lost their lives in the Ngau Tau Kok fire over a week ago, Thomas Cheung and Samuel Hui Chi-kit should be recognized posthumously with gold medals for bravery.

While this honour is a token that will not bring Hui and Cheung back to their families, it is a small gesture Hong Kong can do to show the community's gratitude towards them.

Other people recognized on the list seem to be pro-establishment figures, like Starry Lee Wai-king, chairman of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong, her colleague Tam Yiu-chung, and Liu Changle, chairman and CEO of Phoenix Television.

And for Father Franco Mella in helping the disadvantaged

How about highlighting people who are fostering community in the city, helping others in selfless ways, like restaurant owner Chan Cheuk-ming or Ming gor, who feeds the poor in Sham Shui Po, or Father Franco Mella, an Italian priest who came to Hong Kong in 1974 and learned Cantonese and has worked hard to help the disadvantaged.

To me, these people should be receiving the city's highest honours. But perhaps the government is perched too high on the pedestal to see the city's true gems.

More "Confessions" from Missing Booksellers

In a Phoenix TV interview, Lee Po says he willingly returned to the mainland

Things are getting weirder in the case of the missing booksellers.

Six weeks after Hong Kong police requested to meet with one of the five, Lee Po, who runs Causeway Bay Books, a police officer and immigration officer finally saw him face to face, at a guest house in an undisclosed location at Lee's request.

He told the pair he went to the mainland of his own free will, that he had not been abducted, but refused to elaborate. He even reiterated he was free and safe in the mainland and that he was helping with an investigation involving another missing bookseller, Gui Minhai.

Lee repeated his request for the police to end their investigation into his case and that he didn't need any help from the Hong Kong government. He said he would return home once the investigation was over.

Then yesterday the three other missing booksellers appeared on state television, the first time they were seen since they were reported missing in October.

CW top left: Gui Minhai, Lui Por, Lam Wing-kei, Cheung Chi-ping

The three made confessions on TV, admitting to "operating an illegal business" on the mainland.

Phoenix Television reported that Gui had allegedly ordered his associates -- Mighty Current general manager Lui Por, Causeway Bay Books manager Lam Wing-kee and Lui's assistant Cheung Chi-ping -- to mail 4,000 unauthorized books to 380 buyers in 28 mainland cities and provinces since October 2014.

The booksellers allegedly opened a bank account on the mainland to receive payment from mainland customers.

Nevertheless Lui, Lam and Cheung could be granted bail pending trial and return to Hong Kong soon due to their "good attitude", the Phoenix TV report said.

Gui also appeared on television, wearing the same grey jacket he wore in his first appearance, admitting to drunk driving and allegedly killing a young woman in 2003.

This time Gui said he and the three others studied ways to smuggle books across the border, including wrapping the covers with other books and then packaging them in black nylon bags to make it hard for the authorities to X-ray the books.

He added the books also escaped detection because they were loaded into trucks carrying other goods.

Causeway Bay Books manager Lam also said the books they produced were fabricated.

"The contents are compiled from information downloaded from the internet or from magazines. They created rumours and bad influences in the society," Lam said on TV.

The Chinese authorities are making the story more and more bizarre. They say the end is in sight for three accomplices once they go through some kind of legal process, but what about Lee and Gui? When will they be allowed to return to Hong Kong?

Even better Lee has said that he will renounce his British passport. Really? Has the Chinese government offered him permanent residency and a hukou because he has "special talents"?

Skeptical Hong Kong people continue to be shocked and appalled by the latest developments. As we've said before, the longer the Chinese authorities keep these five booksellers, the greater our distrust of Beijing...