Will Chinese Families Have Three Kids?

China now allows families to have three kids, but will they?

 

China is now encouraging families to have not just two children but three in an announcement made today due to a significant drop in the birth rate in the world's most populous country.

Xinhua reported the change was approved by Chinese President Xi Jinping during a politburo meeting. 

"To further optimize the birth policy, [China] will implement a one-married-couple-can-have-three-children policy," Xinhua said.

The cost of raising children is very expensive

Five years ago China finally scrapped its one-child policy that dates back to 1978, and allowed couples to have two children, but that didn't lead to a significant baby boom thanks to the rising costs of having children, as well as housing and education.

The announcement today was short on specifics in how it would give support and incentives to families to have more children.

Dan Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank (China), said the government would have to offer subsidies, and maybe even set up a new tax system for companies to have the incentive to hire women of childbearing age.

"The high costs of housing and education, as well as a lack of job protection for women, are strong economic constraints on having children," she said, adding the cost of having a third child would be too high for most middle-class families.

This decision comes soon after the release of a summary of census data that pointed to a decline in births in China, and Yi Fuxian, a specialist in China's demographics, said the timing of the announcement so soon after the census summary suggested the detailed data to come would be extremely worrying.

Women's job prospects are low after childbirth

"Maybe it's because the real population data is too scary. Even if they have not published it, it probably frightened the decision makers," Yi said.

The once-in-a-decade census showed the population grew at its slowest rate during the last decade since the 1950s to 1.41 billion.

But the reality of the situation is that young, educated and ambitious women do not want to be baby-making machines. Many are happy to be single let alone married, and prefer having a successful career than the thankless task of looking after a husband and children.

While the government has tried to scorn these women online, that is not going to help the situation, as the ratio of women to men is much smaller, so the pool of women willing to have children is even smaller.

Company policies and attitudes are sexist and need to change -- during job interviews young men are usually chosen over young women because it is assumed the latter will get married soon and have children and then may quit the job. 

Maybe Peng can tell Xi what women go through?

If the government wants to boost the population, it must force employers to find ways to accommodate women before, during and after having children, to keep a job for them or at least give them the opportunity to come back from maternity leave, otherwise how are they going to afford their mortgage, childcare, and pay for education? 

It would be beneficial for companies to retain these workers too; many mothers just want a steady pay cheque, though it is less than what a man would earn in the same position.

So it's all very well and good for the government to tell families to have more children to increase the country's population, but there needs to be specific incentives, services and tax breaks to give couples the financial confidence to have children. 

Grandpa Xi really needs to step up on this issue and look at it from the women's perspective before deciding what carrots he will dangle in front of them.

Perhaps his wife Peng Liyuan, or his daughter Xi Mingze can give him suggestions...

Helping Dementia Sufferers with Banking

The banking institution has trained 45 "dementia ambassadors"

There is greater awareness of dementia in Hong Kong, and it's good to see HSBC trying to tackle the situation by deploying 45 "dementia ambassadors" to help sufferers with banking issues.

The banking institution conducted a survey which found those suffering from dementia had problems understanding account information and remembering passwords.

As a result HSBC will be rolling out such services as voice identification systems, and more modern ATM services.

ATM machines will be quipped with voice identification

This is good news for Maggie Lee Nga-yee, executive director of the Alzheimer's Disease Association.

"Some elderly people with dementia repeatedly withdraw cash from their account and forget they have done it," she says.

According to the survey, more than 80 per cent of those suffering from the disease need help with banking from family members or carers, and nearly half said they helped sufferers with banking by opening a joint account with them. That's because they worried their loved ones with dementia could be a target for scammers.

Lee said a common problem was for dementia sufferers to have difficulty in understanding passbook information and bank statements, trouble talking to staff, and remembering their PIN or signature.

It is projected the number of people over 65 in Hong Kong will more than double in the next 20 years. Data from the Census and Statistics Department estimates the elderly will make up more than 36 percent of the population in 2066.

HSBC says it will have 160 dementia ambassadors in force by the first quarter of next year.

Some with dementia forget they have withdrawn money

It'll be interesting to see how these ambassadors have been trained to deal with various situations, as there are different degrees of dementia severity, and sufferers have different reactions to different circumstances.

Not only banking staff, but also front-line workers from bus drivers and taxi drivers, restaurant and retail staff need to be able to identify dementia sufferers and have some tools or training to deal with them in a positive and sympathetic way.

This is the reality Hong Kong is facing and needs to be prepared to deal with dementia. We cannot hide from this serious issue that should not be swept under the carpet.

Trying to Survive in Hong Kong

There's a lot of foot traffic on the streets, but who's spending?

As if we need more proof it's getting more expensive for people to live in Hong Kong when their salaries aren't keeping up with inflation -- a latest study says households are in nearly twice as much debt as they used to be 10 years ago.

The Legislative Council research division released its latest survey that found grassroots families are earning less than what they spend every month, and that the Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) that employees and employers contribute to monthly is not enough to retire on.

in 2005, the average debt carried by each household consisting of mortgages, credit card advances and personal loans was HK$349,100. That amount has almost doubled to HK$646,100 last year.

Overall the outstanding balance of household loans was HK$1,594 billion, 70 percent of which are mortgages, more than twice the amount a decade ago.

Try buying a matchbox and paying it off before retirement

While people try to save for emergencies like unemployment and illness, the report says, "in the face of slowing economic growth, slackening social mobility, continued inflation and escalating property cost in Hong Kong, many lower- to middle-income families may not be able to do so".

According to the latest data from the Census and Statistics Department, the report estimated the average household expenditure in 2015 was HK$27,600 per  month, a 46 percent rise from a decade ago.

Lower-income households aren't able to save as much these days; those with incomes of HK$11,000 to HK$16,000 a month could barely cover basic expenses, having to fork out another HK$400 from their savings.

This contrasts with those making HK$61,000 to HK$85,000 who are able to save HK$23,700 a month.

Housing makes up the biggest monthly expenditure at 36 percent. Flat prices and rentals have surged by 223 percent and 100 percent respectively between 2005 and 2015, forcing many to resort to taking out bigger mortgages.

Retired couples spent between HK$6,600 to HK$38,300 per month, while their MPF only averaged HK$144,000, which covers only less than two years of spending in some cases. Relatives would have to chip in around HK$4,500 a month just to keep up.

Seniors don't have enough money to be self-sufficient

We're hoping the government is paying attention to this study -- this is why Hong Kong people are frustrated and unhappy. Employers are getting away with not paying their employees what they are worth with the excuse that the economy is bad, but then it's harder to afford even basic necessities to get through the month.

This study shows that one has to have bought a flat and paid off the mortgage before they have retired. But in many cases, because the price of flats keep going up, people may be in their late 30s or 40s before they can afford one, and they may or may not have paid it off within 25 to 30 years.

And there is also the issue of how big a flat they can afford... who wants to live in a matchbox flat of 152 square feet for over 20 years as they try to pay off the mortgage?

The income gap is getting worse and worse here even though the economy is slowing down, things aren't "cheap". We are all still beholden to landlords who seem to live on another planet when it comes to charging rent.

But the government isn't going to impose rent controls anytime soon so we are still going to have to pay more for every service or item we buy because of greedy landlords.

People can't even aspire to bigger and better things because they are just trying to keep their head above water.

How does this give people here any hope that things are going to get better? A good chunk of them are just barely surviving...

Generational Divide

Many fresh graduates have high hopes, then see the reality of the job market

Government figures show that fresh graduates in Hong Kong are only earning HK$1,800 more than those who finished tertiary education 20 years ago. That means today's university graduates aged 20-24 are earning a median income of HK$10,800 ($1,393) in 2014 compared to HK$9,000 in 1994.

Data from the Census and Statistics Department show a 20 percent rise in median income, which compares to a 45 percent increase in the Composite Consumer Price Index, 75 percent in tuition fees, and nearly triple of property prices.

Simon Lee Siu-po, assistant dean of undergraduate studies at Chinese University's Business School says employers could be less willing to make attractive job offers because he believes there are so many more university graduates each year.

All families want their children to do better than the previous generation, and many believe education is the way out. However the sheer numbers of graduates each year means a flood in the labour market, thus lowering the value of a university degree.

Some employers prefer to hire graduates from the mainland

Lee then took a dig at young people today, saying, "Youngsters nowadays, compared to the last generation, are less skillful and are reluctant to learn. Many employers are disappointed by the young generation."

He even went so far as to say employers would rather hire mainland graduates because their English and Putonghua skills were much better than locals.

Ouch.

This touched of a maelstrom of comments, at first illustrating how wages have not kept up with inflation at all, but also how it was practically impossible for young people to save with salaries that are so low.

Then the issue of young people not as hardworking as the previous generation is a perennial comment older people like to say. While many of us may have come across students or young people we don't think are as diligent as they should be, there are many others who maybe putting in more hours than we know of.

Nevertheless, many employers are frustrated that a lot of young people believe they are not being paid what they are worth and so they decide their own work output. It's an interesting perspective that employers haven't encountered before, but it is kind of a chicken-and-egg conundrum -- bosses don't think they can give pay raises unless the employee can demonstrate their worthiness, while employees think, pay me better and then I'll do more work.

But perhaps the last problem of employers looking to expand overseas are choosing to hire more mainland graduates than local ones hits a sensitive spot, particularly with the Occupy movement last year, as well as nativism that is ongoing.

Part of the problem is that students have been screwed around by the Education Department, using them as guinea pigs to see which language is the best medium of instruction. Before 1997 it was English, and then it was Cantonese and now it's becoming more Putonghua in the classroom.

If you keep changing the regulations, students get very confused and don't really learn much of anything effectively. Is it surprising that this has impacted graduates' skill sets to help them land a job?

I would hazard to guess that the majority of fresh graduates are keen to make a good start on their careers, and like us before, will find it's not that easy to find a job, or discover there's no such thing as a dream job.

They just want to be given a chance to prove themselves and from there it's how determined they are to make something of their lives and to contribute to society.

Granted the economy is slow these days, we should at least give young people the opportunity to demonstrate their Lion Rock spirit. They may not have the exact skills needed, but if they have the right attitude, then why not give them a chance? They are our future, the city's future.

Stateless Kids in the City

For nine years, Siu Yau-wai (right) has lived in Hong Kong illegally

Last month, a 15-year-old girl jumped to her death from her parents' flat in Repulse Bay. It was later discovered the daughter of a senior British executive and his Filipina partner, did not have a birth certificate. And as a result, she and her younger sister didn't have Hong Kong Identity Cards and weren't able to go to school.

This brought into question how many other children there are in the city like this and another case turned up this week.

In 2006, a grandmother brought her three-year-old grandson across the border from Shenzhen after his parents abandoned him. They decided he was a "bad omen" after his mother was diagnosed with breast cancer and the father lost an arm in an industrial accident.

They apparently left Siu Yau-wai in a "paper box" on the mainland shortly after he was born, and their whereabouts is unknown.

The 15-year-old girl's parents who didn't register her or sister

How the grandmother, Chow Siu-Shuen, found her grandson three years later has not been clarified, but nevertheless she took the boy back to Hong Kong using another child's ID card and two-way permit.

The boy, Yau-wai, now 12, has spent his childhood in a small public flat in Kwun Tong with his 67-year-old grandmother and grandfather, 80.

They lived in constant fear because he didn't have any papers, so they were terrified of letting anyone in their flat. If someone from the Housing Authority or census staff came, the boy would escape down the back stairwell to the park below, Chow said.

While she home schooled him, Yau-wai liked to read and would only go to the library at night "to avoid crowds", and could not borrow books because of his lack of status, nor could he see the doctor when he was ill. His grandmother would resort to home remedies or take him to see a traditional Chinese medicine practitioner, as ID cards are not necessary.

The boy said he had friends, but none knew he didn't go to school, and neither did their neighbours.

But after reading about the tragic circumstances around the 15-year-old girl's suicide, Chow decided it was in the best interests of Yau-wai to turn herself in and hand him over to the authorities.

Chow was arrested on suspicion of aiding and abetting others in breach of condition of stay, and was granted bail, while the boy was given an identification document allowing him to stay for four weeks, subject to renewal.

"We must now face the reality. We know there may be legal consequences," said the retired grandmother. "If I die one day and he does not have documentation... he will have no way to live."

Yau-wai was assessed and found to have primary three education level, about four years younger than him.

For now Chow and her grandson are free to walk the streets without fear, but what's next? Should he be allowed to stay in Hong Kong?

If he is granted permanent residency, there are fears that many other children who are in similar cases to Yau-wai or the teenager in Repulse Bay will start coming forward. How many really are there in the city?

It also seems not enough is done to enforce the Births and Deaths Registration Ordinance, that while staff may try to follow up on cases that haven't registered, they are not persistent enough and feel the onus is on the parents, who have a year to do the right thing.

However, the media has found there were 543 children from July 1997 to March this year who were registered after the children turned one, with 71 cases since 1997 that were not registered.

If you register a child 42 days after birth, the birth certificate is free, otherwise you have to pay HK$140. After one year it jumps to HK$680.

The story of Yau-wai seems strange, as how would his grandmother know where to find him three years later if he was abandoned in a cardboard box? A quick DNA test would verify their relationship.

But in the meantime, is Hong Kong going to see a flood of children coming out of the woodwork to claim residency?

Should be interesting and we'll only know once Yau-wai's situation is cleared up.