China's Demographic Crisis

China is projected to have less than 15 million babies born in 2018

The projections are becoming a reality for the Chinese government -- 2018 was indeed the turning point for the country's population to drop significantly since 2000. Some economists are already calling it a "demographic crisis" that threatens China's currently struggling economic development.

The final figure for the number of births in 2018 will fall below 15 million, well below the government's estimate of 20 million.

While China's National Bureau of Statistics has yet to release the countrywide number, provinces have already recorded lower births.

Yi Fuxian says this is a turning point for China's population

A paper co-authored by Yi Fuxian, a researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and a long-standing critic of China's family planning policy, and Su Jian, an economist at Peking University, say this will have long-lasting effects on the country.

"The year 2018 will be remembered as a historical turning point for Chinese population," Yi and Su wrote in the paper. "The Chinese population has started to fall, the ageing problems has accelerated, and economic vitality has weakened.

"A great nation, which once upon a time accounted for nearly a third of the world's total population, is gradually degenerating into a small group of the old and the weak thanks to wrong demographic policies."

Hua Changchun, an economist with Guotai Junan Securities, wrote a research note saying the number of births across China could be as low as 14 million if there is a 20 percent drop in births nationwide.

Less births will impact China's economic development

He said the drop in births would not only impact China's social and economic development, but also lead to a drop in demand for property.

This last point led Ren Zeping who is the chief economist for property developer Evergrande Group, to be very concerned about the birthrate dropping and urged China to lift all birth controls "and encourage people to have babies". 

China had hoped lifting the one-child policy in 2016 would lead to more births, but there was only an initial spurt, as many, especially in big cities cannot afford to raise another child, nor do they care to heed the call of the government to do their patriotic duty to procreate for the country.